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Sunday, 31 January 2016

WHY MUSEVENI WILL GRANT THE OPPOSITION MORE PARLIAMENTARY SEATS


Uganda's military dictator, Gen. Museveni's hold o presidency is this time around being challenged at his own game.  He corruptly removed the constitutional two five years’ presidential term limits in the hope that he would always rig his way after every five years. However, this time around he is facing a big challenge from Ugandans who are craving for change.  The opposition message of 'not business as usual' seem to be taking root. Ugandans are already visibly demonstrating that they want a change of leadership.  Museveni has come to terms with the fact that his usual tricks like; threats of return to insecurity if not voted back, intimidation, bribery, ballot stuffing, etc.  cant work for him this around.  The only last card that he is holding on is outright violence by his security apparatus.  That way, he will be able to disrupt the entire electoral process so that he is either declared the winner amidst chaos or the entire exercise is nullified.  In either scenario, he will achieve his much cherished hobby - holding on the presidency.


The opposition has mobilised Ugandans to keep vigilance during the polls and Museveni has put in place a one million + militia corps under the cover of Crime Preventers to counter the above popular opposition poll vigilance.  These militias will supplement the army, police, and the intelligence services in subduing the masses who are craving for change.  Museveni had made it clear that he won’t hand over power even if he lost at the polls; the police Chief has promised to issue out guns to these regime militias at the hour of need; the regime party Secretary General has declared that who ever protests Museveni's victory will be shot dead; and the army chief has made it clear that the army will intervene in the electoral process.  All those statements are a component of the wider intimidation scheme for Museveni still believes that it can once again work for him. 


 Another strategy that Museveni intends to use is to hoodwink the opposition by allowing it to win parliamentary and local government seats in some areas.  His plan is to allow the opposition a win in most of the urban centers for both the parliamentary seats and local government positions.  In his estimates he believes that once such opposition candidates win in such urban centres, their supporters will feel contented thus abandon the push for change of leadership at the top (presidency).  Because of the monetary gains associated with a parliamentary seat, there is a high possibility that such victorious candidates will feel contented and where they will have been designated as coordinators of opposition poll vigilantes, they won't push beyond their own victory.  This will leave the opposition's massive vigilantes without direction and in disarray.  Therefore, the opposition will end up winning about 100 parliamentary seats and a higher number of local government positions mostly from urban centers.  He has also swallowed his pride and accepted to win by a smaller margin of less than 60%.

At the end of the day, Museveni will have managed to contain the opposition vigilance for a mass uprising to change the top leadership while hoodwinking Ugandans and the opposition put up a spirited fight against a popular president.  At the end of the day, he will retain the presidency and the majority in parliament and it will be business as usual. However, where there is a will there is a way!!


INFORMATION IS POWER

Tuesday, 26 January 2016

WHY MUSEVENI COMMEMORATED HIS 30 YRS RULE IN KABAROLE

Kabarole district is the headquarters of the greater Tooro sub region.  Its a home of the hospitable, loving and welcoming Batooro tribe.  Like other regions, Tooro has also been a victim of  Museveni's divide and rule policy whereby three more districts were curved out of Kabarole.  Also, two kingdoms have been created and more are in the offing.  In 1979 during the war to oust Iddi Amin, the advancing troops led by Museveni's FRONASA faction maliciously a destroyed the magnificent King's palace in Fort Portal.  When a son of the soil, Edward Rugumayo who had been the Chairman of the post Amin ruling National Consultative Council (NCC) was rigged out in favor of Museveni's choice of a weak Godfrey Binaisa, he set up the UNLD-AD rebel group in Tooro much earkier than the December 1980 elections.  It was headed by the infamous Gang of Four (Rugumayo, Nabudere, Omwony Ojok and Yash Tandon) and the armed wing was under Eriya Mwine alias Chefe Ali who had been the overall Commander of Museveni's FRONASA faction of UNLA.

 During the 1980 elections, Kabarole overwhelmingly rejected Museveni and his UPM.  Even the King of Tooro Patrick Kaboyo Olimi who vied for a parliamentary seat on the UPM ticket was outrightly rejected by his Batooro subjects.

When Museveni miserably lost the 1980 general elections and started guerrilla war in Buganda, he embarked on luring the UNLF-AD that that had alredy set up bases in the Rwenzori mountains and had a network of contacts in Tooro. It was around 1982 that the UNLF-AD fighters under Chefe Ali abandoned their bases in the Tooro to join Museveni's NRA in Buganda.  Even so, some of the civilian supporters and fighters refused to join Museveni and instead went home.  In Luwero, prominent Batooro like Tom Butine, Dr. kamanyire, Ambassador Katenta Apuuli and others joined the NRA.  Former soldiers from Tooro like Italikire Kiiza Kajura and others who had served under Iddi Amin joined the NRA and played a big role in shaping the NRA.  The forgotten male and female teenagers from Kabarole who were studying at Katikamu and Masulita secondary schools in Luweero were kidnapped by the NRA and conscripted as fighters.  The female abductees were used and abused by the fighters the same way the LRA is alleged to have abused the female abductees from Acholi.


When the going became tough in Luwero, some NRAs from Tooro suggested to Museveni that  a section of fighters be dispatched to Kabarole to open up another front and establish bases for the NRA, Museveni rubbished off the idea.  In one sentence he asked the proposers thus: "If you had the capacity to do it, why didn't you start it?"  and the matter just ended up there.  This was because Museveni wanted to remain the sole Kingmaker, to control the number of his preferred 'home boys' in the NRA and to rival the pro Buganda UFM rebel group under Andrew Kayiira.  To ensure that his home boys remained in the lead in terms of numbers, he would often issue recruitment banns but to the surprise of some members of his clandestine team like Aston Kajara and Bob Kagoro, they would be instructed to pick bands of new recruits from his home area during such banns.

 However, when Museveni was away in Europe, the battle field in Luwero got rough and the commanders opted to take a group of NRA to Tooro to open up another front led by Chefs Ali and commanded by Fred Rwigyema. In Kabarole, Chefe Ali used his previous UNLF-AD network of contacts to sell the NRA to the Batooro.  As had been the case in Luwero, in Tooro the NRA had started slaughtering UPC leaders when the Commanding Officer of the government's 31st Battalion, Capt. Okwera led his unit to join hands with the NRA.  This negotiated surrender was facilitated by prominent elders of Tooro and the catholic church under Bishop Sarapio Magambo who had been mobilised by Chefe Ali. The presence of Chefe Ali confused many including now NRA's chief ideologist Kajabago Karusoke who at the tine bekieved that it was their old UNLF-AD that had resurfaced. Following the take over of Fort Portal by the NRA, the NRA got out of hiding in the Rwenzori mountains and set up an interim administration in Tooro.  The Batooro overwhelmingly supported the NRA by offering all they could including massive enlistment of its youth into the NRA.


Its around this time that the likes of Noble Mayombo,  Brig. Kayanja Muhanga, Col. Asingura Kagoro and others joined the NRA.  During the same period a son of the soil defected from the government bringing with him the first tank to the NRA.  Museveni who had earlier opposed the opening up of this western front was not pleased with the development.  He rushed back from Europe and did not address any rally in Tooro.  That is why he does not talk about the role of the western front and Kabarole in particular in his book and at public functions like the the one of yesterday.  This is because he was no longer in control of numbers in favor of his home boys.  Most threatening, on top of the Batooro, were the big number of Banyankole Bairu from other places of Ankole other than his home village.  He had all along contained such unwanted numbers through his controlled selective recruitment while still in Luwero.  This is what was later to cause oroblems to the likes of Brig. Kanyankole who was incharge of training and recruitment.  Its during that time that Tooro supplied the highest number of female teenage recruits who were later used and abused the same way the LRA did to the female abuductees from Acholi. Even the first NRA female university graduate, Agnes Kasaami who hailed from Tooro was used and abused by the then Army Commander, Gen Tumwiine into oblivion.

Since coming to power 30 years ago, Museveni has taken Tooro's support for granted.  He has sidelined those who actively participated in the struggle.  Col. Butime refused to be dumped in Karamoja as Minister, Edward Rugumayo refused to be demoted from a Ministerial position to Ambassador to France, Aston Kajara had to get a ministerial position after Rwanda's Col. Karegyeya pleaded for him throug Noble Mayombo who was the CMI at the time because they had worked together in NRA clandestine squads, the Katentas  as and Kamanyires are no where, Italikire Kiiza died a Major and a sidelines army officer, the list is endless.  The highest ranked active army officer from Tooro is Brig. Kayanja Muhanga who is a Senior 5 drop out but just because he is a brother to sycophant Andrew Mwenda as if Tooro never gave the NRA university graduates.  Dr. Kagoro who had been the farm manager of Ruboona Stock Farm and successfully carried out a reconnaissance of the government forces encampment that was stationed at the farm leading to the NRA to overrun it and capture a multi-barrelled Katutsya, recently retired into oblivion as a Lieutenant.

Museveni deliberately destroyed the train service to Kasese and delayed the construction of the Mubende - Fort Portal road in order to boost Mbarara's development as tourists and trade to Congo avoided going through Tooro.  He prioritised the construction of a bridge and a road across the Katonga river from Kabagole in Ankle in order to facilitate the crossing of pastrolists to occupy Kyaka and Rwamwanja since according to him the Batooro are not cattle keepers. Ehen the Army's 2nd Division was based in Fort Portal in the late 1980s, then Division Commander Chefe Ali and his Division I.O Charles Angina were accused of beibg anti-government for allegedly cocertly reviving the old UNLF-AD network of cobtacts in the area for subversive activities.  The fact is that Chefe Ali had advocated for the locals to be the ones to have tenders for supplying the 2nd Division. Chefe Ali was displaced and eventually grounded (placed on Katebe) before he died a misserable senior officer.  The 2nd Division was instead relocated to Mbarara leaving a skeleton of troops in the area that was soon cobsequently hit by the ADF rebels left and right.  Evidence clearly shows that because of the huge defence budget, the big presence of the army in an area greatly contributes to its economic developnent.  This is how Lira and Guku have registed a tremendous growth inspite of the two decades of the LRA insurgency thus Kabarole missed out in favor of Mbarara. He demonished their King by calling him 'that boy who is getting fat' on top of severally using derogatory language on them.  Its only of recent that the people of Tooro  have woken up after realising that Museveni had all along taken them for a ride.  In the ongoing election campaigns, the people of Tooro have already demonstrated huge support for the opposition.  This has sent Museveni and company into terrible panic.  The regime campaign helicopter's landing at Mbabazi's campaign venue in Fort Portal, Museveni personally buying off of Stephen Kaliba who is akey Mbabazi supporter in the area, and the huge sums of cash and violence being unleashed by the regime on residents all alludes to fear of losing its support in the model district of Kabarole. At the time the NRA took over Fort Portal in 1985, Stephen Kaliba was a teacher but his family which was deeply entrenched in the UPC narrowly survived slaughter  by the NRA.

Therefore, from the aforementioned, there is no doubt that the choice of Kabarole as the host of the 30th anniversary of his hold on power is a desperate move to reclaim the sub region.  It is for the same reason that the choice of the military parade commander, Col. Asingura Kagoro whose home is a few metres from the parade ground was a calculation aimed at winning back the residents.  Its for similar reason that the last independence day celebrations were held in Gulu with all the parade commanders being sons of Gulu.  In both cases, the bogus exercise of aimlessly awarding of medals has been used as a bait to trap the unsuspecting influential individuals whom he thinks will develop a feeling of belonging to the system (Tuli my Kintu).   The parràde Admin, Major Muhenda also hails from the same area and is a father of a leading opposition political activist.  A son of a retired prominent Education Officer, Col. Kagoro Asingura joined the NRA around July 1985 from 'A' level at St. Leo's College Kyegobe.  After taking over power, he briefly served as an instructor at the NRA indoctrination centre in Namugongo before joining the then elite presidential guards (PPU) where he served as a body guard to the First Lady.

Things turned against Asingura when the First Lady stopped a commercial flight from taking off unless his body guard, then Lieutenant Kagoro Asingura was left to leave with her on a journer abroad.  Consequently, Museveni gave Lt. Asingura one hour to have packed all his belongings and family and left State House and PPU.  He was dumped at the army headquarters for redeployment somewhere else.  Instead, Lt. Kagoro did mature entry exams at Makerere University and was admitted to study law.  He is an Advocate and has been behind some of the regime's worst  miscarriage of justice in using military courts to silence both military and civilians who are perceived dissenters of the regime.  The choice of Kabarole was a Museveni campaign strategy and that is why he almost talked 'nothing' in his address during the function other than introducing his new catch, UPC's Stephen Kaliba.  The move has flopped because the people have realised how disrespectful, divisive and confusing he is when he introduced all the two contestants for the Municipality parliamentary seat - the official regime flag bearer and the new catch Stephen Kaliba who is an Independent candidate after defecting the Mbabazi camp. The choice of the venue (in the strong catholic establishments) inspite of the existence of the official Boma grounds was another futile gamble. We are yet to see if these political manoeuvres coupled by the impending release of former Tooro Prime Minister, John Katuramu will help him to regain the dwindling support of the people of Kabarole.



IINFORMATION IS POWER.

Saturday, 23 January 2016

FDC SHOULD DEFIANTLY GET MORE SSERIOUS

Uganda's leading opposition party, the FDC is campaigning for the February, 2016 polls on the platform of 'defiance'.  This defiance message is about rallying the masses to defy the traditional  methods that Museveni has always used to rig himself into victory.  Such methods are:  intimidation by security forces, voter bribery, bribery of polling agents,  ballot stuffing, Museveni threatening to return to war if not elected, tampering with voters register, harassment and curtailing of rival contestants, altering of the results at tallying centers, etc.  Members of the security forces are Museveni's key agents in the above schemes.  Much of the above stuff has already been rolled out and it is in the late stages of implementation.  The main opposition forces have to some extent  put up a spirited fight of defiance.  Their main weapon has been to instil confidence in the voters who are desperately yearning for change. They are being encouraged to team up and turn up in big numbers to cast their votes on the premises that this time round the leaders have the capacity to  secure the vote tallying process. 

Though candidate Mbabazi is not disclosing the method that he will use to guard his vote, his message of capacity to guard his vote at the national tallying center is gaining ground simply because he had until recently been a top regine confidant thus voters believe that he knows the tactics that the regime uses to rig.   On the other hand, candidate Dr. Besigye  and his FDC party have put in place a countrywide vote guarding and monitoring mechanism dubbed P10 (Power Ten) whereby its supporters are grouped in clusters of ten people at all levels countrywide.   They are telling voters to turn up in big numbers and cast their votes and that they should not leave the polling stations until after the counting and declaration of results.  This is what has sent Museveni and company into panic.  Coupled by the guilty consciousness for 30 years hold on power, the massive enthusiasm displayed by voters at opposition campaign rallies and the shifting international opinion, the regime has no alternative but to unleash highly levels of open bribery and violence.

However, since the regime is fused with the former state of Uganda, it has the capacity  to crash the seemingly effective vote guarding mechanisms that are being assembled by the  opposition contestants.  Speaking to the press in Karamoja last week, FDC Secretary General Mandala Mafabi gave an insight into what P10 is all about.  The organisational and operational structures of P10 are just wonderful.  Unfortunately, Hon. Mandala added that P10 was to rely on WHATSAP to convey its poll results from the polling stations through diffent levels to the National opposition tally center.  The scheme would look brighter if its operationalization was not dependent on the regime's communication communication infrastructure.  At the close of the polling day, the regime will blackout all all internet, telephone, and radio connections.   The opposition tally centres will be raided, its gadgets confiscated and personnel arrested almost the same way it happened during the 2011 polls.

On the other hand, the opposition need to get more serious by considering all possible scenarios.  WHERE THERE IS A WILL, THERE IS A WAY.

INFORMATION IS POWER.




































 INFORMATION IS POWER


EXILES KILLED UGANDANS - PROF. KABWEGYERE

When Iddi Amin overthrew Milton Obot in 1971, the later fled together with a number of UPC members and army officers to Tanzania.  Among the exiles was Museveni who had been an intelligence officer under the Presidents Office. immediately after fleeing, the exiles embarked on efforts to oust Iddi Amin from power and reinstate Milton Obote.  Among the various methods of fighting Iddi Amin were ; spreading false propaganda, antagonising the regine with the masses, economic sabotage, discrediting the regime though kidnaps and killings, etc.  Museveni who soon fell out with Obote took an active role in efforts to undermine the Iddi Amin government.  In his book, Sowing the Mustard Seed, Museveni discloses that him and his fellow exiles used among other methods; antagonizing prominent politicians, leading academicians and prominent Ugandans with the regime.  He goes ahead to state that they caused a lot of trouble for the Iddi Amin regine and that as a result many prominent personalities fled the country.  The Iddi Amin regime had initially appointed the best brains in the country at the time.  The then DP President General, Ben Kiwanuka whom Iddi Amin had appointed as Chief Justice was among the first victims of kidnappings and brutal murder.  Around 1976, the Arch-Bishop of the Anglican Church in Uganda,  Jana Luwuum was killed alongside two other cabinet ministers.  This particular murder redirected the seemingly fading world attention on Iddi Amin thus it provided an opportunity for exiles to reactivate their anti-Amin activities.

The question of who was behind the murder of prominent people during the reign of Iddi Amin  has always remained contentious.  What has only been resolved is the fact that the Iddi Amin regime murdered some people but not all and its those fighting his regime who stood to benefit from those murders.  On 14th January  2016, Prof. Kabwegyere who had been one of the politically active individuals in exile at the time, appeared on TV West's Akadara (platform) program where he disclosed that exiles fighting Iddi Amin killed prominent people in Uganda.  A senior regime cadre and Cabinet Minister, the Marxist Professor was attempting to highlight the evil deads of Dr. Obote while prising Museveni as being God-sent.  He went ahead to assert that he has evidence that then exiled former Presient Obote killed Ben Kiwanuka and Bishop Janan Luwum.  He added that from exile Obote made moves that placed the two victims in direct fire from Iddi Amin. He gave the example of incriminating letters sent by exiles to Ben Kiwanuka and the guns sent to Bishop Janan Luwum which were at the same tine eliberately leaked by the same senders to the regime.  Unfortunately the moderator did not interrogate him further on the matte



While there is some truth in what he stated, it is a fact that the Professor only feared to to disclose that such manoeuvres were masterminded by Museeveni who had fallen out with the main exile group under Obote and was running a parallel organisation called FRONASA.  Museveni leak plans by Obote group thus undermining their upper hand such that sometimes his fellow exiles suspected him to be a spy. May be next time the Professor will tell Ugandans how  Obote may have gruesomely murdered hundreds of Muslins in Ankole after the fall of Iddi Amin.  The same crude and barbaric methods of fighting to get into powerful power  were repeated during the so called bush war.  Gen. Otafiire confirmed NRA's role in mysterious murders when he stated that during the war they would dress in UPC T-shirts and army uniforms and then cause mayhem to the villagers only the blame be hyped on UPC Youth Wingers and government forces thus discrediting the Obote government.

In a related development former DP Youth Winger  who is currently Museveni's advisor on Media, Tamale Mirundi  while appearing on a talk-show at NBS TV on 19th January 2016 contended that Paulo Muwanga was right to assume the role of the Electoral Commission during the 1980 elections.  He was trying to show that the opposition is planning to rig the February 2016  by announcing their own results and victory the same way the DP attempted to do it in 1980. Like Prof. Kabweggyere, Mirundi also feared to state that its Museveni who was the Vice Chairman of Paulo Muwanga's Military Commission and he did not protest because he was more interested in DP loosing the poll than anybody else. Had DP won the polls, he would have had no reason for waging the war that brought him to power. 


 Such shocking confessions by the top regime idealogists cleary denotes how desperate Is  the regime camp in marketing  Museveni in this electoral process.


 INFORMATION IS POWER.





















Thursday, 21 January 2016

WHY CHARLES RWOMUSHANA WAS ARRESTED AND RELEASED WITHOUT CHARGES.

Charles Rwomushana is leading political analyst and ardent critic of the Museveni dictatorship. He is famous for appearing on several radio and TV talk-shows where he is reputed for giving accurate analysis of security issues from a political perceptive.  Much as his background as a one time Constituent Assembly (CA) delegate and later on as the Head of Political Intelligence under the President's Office, he is naturally intelligent. 
Moreover, an Intelligence Officer who is not intelligent is a disaster to his country.  Museveni prefers to employ individuals who are naturally dense as his intelligence managers thus the current poor performance.  However, it is the intelligence background that facilitated Museveni's journey to gain the presidency and hold it for the last 30 years.  For the same reason, he tends to pay more attention to both his real and perceived political opponents who have a background of intelligence services.  He puts more emphasis on such targets whose intelligence background is supported by military background thus his distinctive rating of candidates A mama Mbabazi and Dr. Besigye. 
The former has intelligence services background which is absent in the later who is intelligent and popular.  Museveni whose manipulative governance style survives on intelligence and hates anyone who attempts to beat him at his own game.  That is why he has always clashed with some naturally gifted Ugandans who have distinguished themselves in accurately analysing political and security issues; the likes of Charles Onyango Obbo, Ssemujju Ibrahim Nganda, David Poulkol, Gen. Ssejusa, Charles Rwomushana, and a few others before he bought off the likes of Tamale Mirundi and Andrew Mwenda who went to the dogs.


Around the recent festive season when dead bodies of young men were discovered around some beaches of Lake Victoria, Charles Rwonushana was at it again trying to give it an accurate analysis of the probable cause of death.  Among the points of contention surrounding these deaths, he pointed out the fact that the dead bodies were not swollen implying that they had died before drowning. 
He also argued that it is unusual for young male revellers not to be in the company of young females - its only males whose bodies were discovered.  similarly, during Museveni's bush war, its only male orphans who were  attributed to killings by government forces as if females were not being killed. The same dead bodies were reported to be having blood stains and cuts.  As that incident was trending, then came the alleged murder of candidate Mbabazi's head of security, Christopher Aine. 
A son of the late col. Julius Aine - one of the original 27 NRA war veterans who started the bush war with Museveni, Christopher Aine  is wanted by the Police for having effectively fought off the regime police during one of their routine disruption of rival candidate's rally. Again in Ntungamo  his team effectively defended itself from an attack from the Museveni camp hooligans.  Museveni had issued a statement condemning the attack on his supporters and vowed to severely deal with the Christopher
Aine group before adding that they pay dearly.  Indeed, shortly after Christopher Aine was reportedly kidnapped by the regime police before they reportedly killed him.
 A picture alleged to be of a dead Chris Maine were circulated all over the social media whose source the police attributed it to Charles Rwomushana.  The development became a huge source of concern and a major topic of discussion throughout the country.  On the fateful evening of his kidnap, Charles Rwomushana was driving to WBS TV for a popular political talk show.  If he had made it to the studio, he was expected to give an accurate analysis of both the death at the beach and the Christopher Aine  saga.  Definitely, the regime had to block  him from appearing on the show so that he does not ignite the already volatile situation. 
His usual co-panellist at the WBS TV talk show, Richard Baguma knew in advance that Rwomushana would not make it to the studios and that he would be arrested that evening.  He had been on of the leading proponents of the need for the regime to curtail Rwomushana's explosive  but accurate analysis of the political manoeuvres of the military dictatorship.  That is why at the start of the show when the host introduced the topic of alleged killing of Aine, Richard Baguma gave a big, long and sarcastically ugly laugh.  Shortly after, he fidgeted to  explain how close he and Rwomushana were adding that he had even been his best man during his wedding. 
As Rwomushana was being arrested, the regime communication regulatory body (UCC) had to switch off the WBS TV Station so that explosive topic is not discussed.  A free discussion of the Aine saga would definitely call for examination of the circumstances of the motor accident that killed his father and the general sidelining of Banyankole Bairu army officers.  Actually, shortly before the TV station was switched off, the moderator had hinted on that issue saying that he had in his poses soon astonishing information in that regard that he had intended to share with viewers.  Therefore, the regime had to do all it could that evening in order to block Rwomushana from appearing on the TV talkshow.


After being held incommunicado  at the notorious Special Investigations Department (SID) facility at Kireka in Kampala, Charles Rwomushana was released without charges but instead placed under house arrest at his residence.  The regine police issued a statement claiming that Rwomushana had been held over the source of a dead Aine's pictures and his repeated fanning of tribal sentiments during talk shows.  On the other hand, the regime has for a long time been struggling to identify and neutralise the mysterious Tom Okwalinga - a leading social media critic  of the regime. 
They had all along suspected that it was the same Charles Rwomushana  who was posing as Tom Okwalinga.  By arresting and detaining Rwomushana, they intended to see if the Tom Okwalinga Facebook account would remain active  during that period and indeed it did thus why Rwomushana had to be released without çharges.   The arrest was also meant to give security agencies access to Rwonushana's electronic communication devices (computers and phones) so that they could plant their surveillance gadgets into his devices for future monitoring.

INFORMATION IS

Tuesday, 19 January 2016

WHEN DID GEN. BIRARO ALSO BECOME A KIPINGA?


Kipinga is a term that was coined by the Museveni military regime right from the bush days to refer anyone who was opposed to the war and in particular to the ideology of the Chairman of the High Command, Museveni.  The term Kipinga is the short form of the term Kipingamizi or Bipingamizi (plural.  There has always been external and internal Bipingamizis thus members of the then ruling UPC or the current members of the opposition and the internal dissenters within the NRA/Museveni regime respectively. The punishment for either category during the bush war was death by the infamous Kafuuni (smashing of the victims’ head) and ever since he took over power, such perpetrators have been 'sent six feet deep'. Save for the likes of the late Sam Magara and Ssejusa, members of the Bahima ethnic group were the least expected to be Bipingas during the bush war.  Even in government, for the last 30 years Museveni has treated the Bahima as the most loyal to his regime thus the reason his 10,000+ strong elite presidential guard unit is dominated by his members of his ethnic group under the command of his own son.  Among the Bahima ethnic community, Museveni has portrayed himself as their God and anyone opposed to him is viewed as Satan. It is worse if such a Kipingamizi is a member of the Bahiima ethnic group as is the case with the likes of Dr. Besigye's wife, Winnie Byanyima and Gen. Ssejusa who are viewed as outcasts for standing up against Mzee - as he is popularly called.

It is against this background that when Gen. Biraro was easily retired from the army and he declared his intentions to run for the presidency many Ugandans viewed him as a Museveni protégé and his election peg boy in the February 2016 polls.  However, during the recently concluded round one of the live presidential debate, Gen. Biraro outshined his critics by proving beyond doubt that he genuinely has fundamental disagreements with dictator Museveni's style of governance.  He articulately brought out his disagreements with Museveni thus:

1.  He compared Museveni with a leader who led the Israel out of Egypt and after crossing the Red Sea, he lost direction and led the Israelis back to Egypt.  He went ahead to state that the so called revolution lost direction.  "This regime has not served the people well.  I wouldn't be here. A lot has gone wrong; misuse of security forces; I have seen it all.  What took us to the bush has not been fulfilled.  More bushmen (those who fought in the bush war) will come on board."

 2.  He clearly stated that after coming to power in 1986, for the last 30 years has been holed in State House and does not know what affects the ordinary civilians in the countryside.

3.  He clearly stated that sending army officers to the agricultural NAADs project was a disaster.  He added that the move was prompted by the backlog of unemployed army officers in the ministry of Defence whom Museveni does not wish to retire.  He wondered if the army will invite the farmers to its rescue in case it faces a crisis!!!

4.  He attacked Museveni's polarisation of the country through creation of more districts which he described as mere political units rather than economically viable units.

5.  He emphatically stated that the army should not be in parliament.

6. He revealed that he designed a scheme to tackle poverty in the country and Museveni frustrated it by locking the concept paper away in the drawer until he had to retire from army.

Following this debate and the above disclosures, Gen. Biraro has been rated as a brilliant fellow.  However, for the Museveni protégés and sycophants, Gen. Biraro talked 'nonsense and is a Kipinga.  For Museveni, Gen. Biraro pocked his finger into the an..... of a leopard and he will have to pay dearly.  Ugandans now understand why Museveni fears to retire army officers. Its remains mysterious if Get. Biraro would have stated those facts had Museveni been present at the debating podium.  On the other hand, its such realities that scared Museveni into dodging the debate.

 Bravo, Gen. Biraro for defiantly stating facts.

INFORMATION IS POWER

Monday, 18 January 2016

#Museveni's security agents are behind the alleged criminal gangs



Last week, security chiefs issued a public statement to the effect that criminal gangs had invaded Kampala city.  A few days later, the Police Chief Gen Kalekyezi aka Mukanjanga (chief executioner of martyrs) met the Police Commanders of the greater Kampala where he expressed disappointment over the upsurge of crime in the city before disclosing that some Police Crime Intelligence Officers were conniving with criminals. 

There is no doubt that the Museveni regime Police's sole duty is to brutally suppress and subdue political dissent.  It enjoys full protection of the regime in the commission of these heinous crimes against Ugandans.  In doing so, Ugandans have been left vulnerable to detectable and preventable crimes.  On the other hand, members of the regime Police and other security agencies are involved in outright armed robberies, murder for hire, extortion, theft, maiming, torture, kidnap, illegal detentions, bribery, etc. 

The regime also uses insecurity as an excuse to clamp down on political dissent, to justify recruitment and militarisation of the Police, creation of regime militia groups, huge budgetary expenditure, etc.

Here below, please find a few out of he many incidents that illustrate the above arguments:

1.  The DPC of Kampala's CPS, Aron Baguma is accused of murder of a businesswoman Dinar Katushabe at the Prime Car Bond.  Together with the bond proprietor, Mr. Mohammed Ssebufu and other police officer tortured the deceased to death after the businessman paid cash to the said DPC; according to the Head of Prosecutions (DPP) before ordering for his arrest and arraignment before courts of law. 

The DPC is still at large and last Friday he was In-charge of security at the presidential debate venue.  He is still at large because he is a 'home boy' as not everybody in the Police leadership can be entrusted with taking charge of policing the central Kampala area.  Next, Ugandans will hear that potential witnesses in that case have dies or are missing.

2.  The officer In-charge of Malabar central Police Station at the Uganda/Kenya border, Mr. Julius Jingo is under arrest for having been coordinating theft of cars and other goods in transit.  The vice had been ongoing for a long time and victims lost billions of shillings as the stolen cars were being sold to neighboring DRC and South Sudan.  Unlike Aron Baguma, Julius Jjingo has been arrested because he is not a 'home boy' though there will be no meaningful trial.

3.  Former Director of Operations in Police, Felix Kaweesa is accused of having a hand in the murder of city businessman Wilberforce Wamala.  The potential witness Hassan Ssali was killed in police custody in a move orchestrated by Andrew Kawesi.  When the matter came to the like light, the regime swiftly moved Kawesi from Operations to Administration so that he gets out of the public limelight as the matter is swept under the carpet.

4.  Top regime Police detective cadres, Karo and Komurubuga took bribes in the 165billion shilling Pensions Scam and when the CID Chief Grace Akullo attempted to poke her flat nose noise into the misconduct of her two officers, their God Fathers in the force intervened on behalf of the two homeboys thus instead it was Akullo who was sent in limbo as the two culprit detectives continue to shine.

 5.  Last week, Ismail Mayanja of Bunamwaya in Kampala was murdered in police custody by the In-charge of Kilimanyaga Police Post.  The deceased had been detained on suspicion of having carried out a ritual murder.  It is suspected that the relatives of the victim of ritual murder connived with Sgt Opolot to kill Ismail Ssali while in his custody. The police have arrested Sgt Opolot because he is not home boy though the matter will as usual be swept under the carpet.

6.  Police Constable Wandera of Katwe Police Station is alleged to have lost a gun to criminal youth gangs and is under arrest.

7.  In Budaka district, the district coordinator of Crime Preventers is under arrest for extorting 700,000/= from his fellow crime preventers ostensibly to pay for motorcycles which are given to them for free courtesy of the tax payer.  Imagine if he can do that his colleagues, what about if it comes to helpless civilians!!!

 8.  In early 2015, Sgt Jaden Ashraf attached to Muyenga police post in Kampala was hired to kill city tycoon, Kasiwukira in a faked motor accident.  Some conspiring police officers rushed to kill evidence by deliberately mishandling the crime scene.  It was after the strong club of top Baganda city tycoons issued threats, that the police made some progress in inquiries.

9.  The Ndeeba incident where Museveni's special intelligence operative, Muhirwa shot dead two criminal police intelligence operatives who had allegedly been hired to extort and kill him.  Police inquiries revealed that Muhirwa had been in possession of an illegal gun and a number of passports that were not in his names. He is out on bail and the case is as good as dead.

10.  Businessman, rally ace and highly politically connected, Desh Kananura simply tortured to death his employee.  The murder charge now withstanding, the suspect is as free as a bird in the air.

 11.  In January 2015 in front of the cameras, then Old Kampala DPC, Jom Mwesigye attempted to murder TV Journalist who was covering a peaceful protest.  Mwesigye only faced the simple charge of common assault and is back on duty while the victim Journalist is physically incapacitated and begging members of the public to fundraise for his operation on his dislocated spinal code.

 13.  In February 2015, two police officers of the VIP protection unit who were guarding the residence of Justice Faith Mwonda in Bugiri were attacked by unknown people, killed and their two guns taken as they rode bicycles from their guard post to Bugiri police station. This incident followed the murder of the LCIII chairman Tit
 Okware and Sheikh Dr. Abdul Kadhir Muwaya by unknown people in the same area

 13.  Last week, two police personnel from the VIP protection unit are alleged to have been attacked, killed and their guns taken by unknown people as they returned from other respective guard posts on foot in the wee hours of the morning.  They had been guarding the residences of Justice Tabaro and former Obote Minister, Chris Rwakasisi.

 14.  Arinaitwe Bwana, the police officer who attempted to kill the leading opposition leader, Dr. Besigye has always enjoyed full protection by the regime and now they are trying to hide him behind the insanity shield as alleged that he is attending mental clinic.

15.  For the fist time in the history of criminal justice throughout the world, the Deputy Director of police's criminal investigations was ordered by the Police Chief Gen. Kalekyezi to testify as a defence witness in the murder trial of the latter's in law Jackie Nsenga.

 16.  In 2010, the High Court ordered the Ministry of Internal Affairs to investigate the killings of prisoners in Luzira Prison.  The inquest was prompted by killing of detained businessman, Saudi Lutaaya. However, the order was not honoured to this date.

17.  In March 2015, security agencies were hunting for dangerous army officers led by Capt. Peter Mushabe the In-charge of Communication at military intelligence (CMI) who had been carrying our high profile armed robberies.  Some of their victims had been a Chinese Construction Company which lost 350,000UD$ and another 25 million shillings from an Indian businessman. 

During those incidents, Israel made and supplied Macro Garril guns which are the exclusive of CMI Special Squads (Black Mambas) and SFG thus ease of investigations.  In May 2015, Capt. Mushabe and group were netted and the security community attempted to make à cover-up but Museveni is reported to have ordered their rearrests. 

It did not make a difference though as no trial ever took place. The suspect Capt. has a godfather in Col. Charles Tusiime - the guy who forgot the spare tyre during the first Kabamba attack in 1981. The same Col. Tusiime recently stole over a ton of ivory from government strong rooms and the matter was simply swept under the carpet.

 18.  In April 2015, Stanbic Bank foiled a 2M$ fraud involving an army officer of the president's inner security and a powerful cabinet minister from western Uganda.  The culprit soldier claimed that the said cabinet minister had tasked him to investigate if that account was not being operated by a terrorist.  The matter was swept under the cabinet and terrorism scare continued to be the excuse for most of the crimes by security forces.

 19.  In May 2015, the head of police intelligence in Kampala stole half a kg of illicit drugs out of the one and a half KGS of the exhibit drugs that he had recovered from à suspected Pakistan drug dealer.  The matter was swept under the carpet.

 20.  In January 2016, 80kgs of cocaine worth 13b shillings was stolen from the custody of the Entebbe airport police by the very custodians of confiscated drugs. They replaced the stolen drugs with wheat flour.  The only action that the regime can take is to transfer the suspects.

 21.  Last year, the Commandant of the Special Investigations Division (SID), Charles Kataratambi was suspended over allegations that he had 'mismanaged’ a criminal case by taking a bribe in a pensions case involving Equity Bank. 

    22.  In Kumi district, the Police recovered the money that had been stolen from the bullion vans in Kampala but only to end up stealing the same exhibit money. 

  23.   In Angora -Teso sub region, five police officers stole personal effects of accident victims in the process of rescuing them and among the five suspects is a Cadet officer from   whom shillings 2M was recovered.     

24.  Police is holding Capt.  Nyakaringwa an Lt.  Che

 From the afore going, it can be argued that the rate at which the regime police is loosing guns to alleged criminal gangs is alarmingly high.  Also alarmingly is the high the rate of unresolved murders in the country.  A report recently released indicates that by the end of 2015, 96 murders most of which remain unresolved had taken place in Kampala, Entebbe and Mukono alone.  
Museveni continues to sing about how he brought peace throughout the country such and that Ugandans only die from crude liquor and road accidents.  The regime police is faced with poor welfare, sectarianism, nepotism etc. amidst outright swindling of public funds by the few privileged individuals. Those who are not privileged to access and manage public funds opt to look for cash using other illegal means outside the force using the above vices. A similar scenario took root in the army since the late 1980s to this date.  Its only the Somali Peace Keeping Mission and the Agricultural console the unprivileged army personnel.

Earlier on, the army officers who held no office and had no access to funds for swindling, resorted to outright robberies in order to catch up with their privileged colleagues who were amassing wealth from public resources.  For the first time in the history of Uganda, a senior army officer leave alone a commissioned officer would carry out armed robbery. They targeted banks, Forex Bureaus, cash and goods in transit.  Indeed, Museveni's Mustard Seed had been down and it is this same seed that is taking root in the newly privatised regime police thus a District Police Commander to rob, kill for hire, maim, extort, and rob!!!!!

There is no reason for the VIP guards to be footing from their guard posts moreover in the wee hours of the morning.  But again why leave their guard posts so early; who would have replaced them at that awkward hour?  Why not be ferried to and from using police trucks?  Either such guards will have absconded from their duty station or will be on personal errands including robberies.  It is also very likely that the force deliberately puts them in a vulnerable situation for sinister motives. 

Therefore, the alleged upsurge of criminal gangs and attack on policemen could be a ploy by the regime to create a justification for the army to take over civil policing ahead of the February general elections in which Museveni feels cornered so far.  The earlier similar attack on such policemen in Busoga had and the subsequent murder of a lead Prosecutor Joan Kagezi gave way to a crackdown on Muslims.  On the other hand, such a situation of insecurity presents a justification for the skyrocketing expenditure on security as evidenced by the recent passing of 50+ billion shillings meant to handle the much anticipated post election violence. 

Museveni has repeatedly made it very clear that he won't hand over power if he lost the elections thus the 50b is for subduing victorious Ugandans.  Otherwise, even if such criminal gangs do exist, its because of the regime police's focus on suppressing and subduing political dissent leaving Ugandans vulnerable to preventable and detectable crimes some of are orchestrated by members of the security forces.  The police professional standard unit (PPSU) that was established to deal with errant officers simply transfers the culprits to other locations until the public interest in their cases wanes or simply dismiss them from the force without due court process if they are not from the privileged class.

INFORMATION IS POWER

http://changeofguards.blogspot.ca/2016/01/musevenis-security-agents-are-behind.html

Tuesday, 12 January 2016

'UNPATRIOTIC' RELIGIOUS LEADERS DOMINATE MUSEVENI'S INTELLIGENCE BRIEFS

Museveni's different secret service outfits always compete against each other in presenting the best intelligence  reports on major incidents, events and occasions.  These briefs take 5he form of comprehensive situation reports that are comprised of an analysis and recommendations on the cause of action. Its the analytical and recommendation part of such briefs that is the focuso of competition by different inttelligence outfits as they endeavor to outsmart each other before the Commander in Chief.  The smarter the analysis, the greater the funding thus despite the existence of the Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC), National Security Council (NIC), JATF etc, Museveni prefers to receive and action such intelligence reports.  That is how Gen. Ssejusa was rendered irrelevant as the Coordinator of Intelligence Services.

Each of these intelligence outfits has a Political Intelligence Desk that collects, collates, analyses and submits political related intelligence to Museveni.  Such intelligence focuses on identifying and neutralising political dissent over its 30 years hold on power.  As a rule, such analysis is not supposed to make a finding of the regime's dwindling popularity but to portray dissenters as negative forces that are confusing and inciting the masses. If any of the intelligence managers dared to present a true picture of the situation, he would be blacklisted as an agent of negative forces.  This is what befell the likes of Charles Rwomushana- - the former State House Head of Political intelligence.  It takes the courage of  the likes of Gen. Ssejusa to to warn that the regime brutality against opposition activists negatively impacted on the economy.  No wonder, he conflicted with the regime and fell out.

Within the intelligence community (CMI, ISO, JATF, State House, Police, Crime Preventers etc), such national events like the Pope's visit, the terror threats, the current general election period etc, provide a bumper harvest season in terms of cash flow.  The current bumper season started right from the time former Prime Minister Mbabazi declared intentions to contest against Museveni, Museveni's sole candidature project, Dr. Besigye's return to the Political scene with his defiance campaign, the Pope's Visit etc.  It has been gradually growing and will climax with a fully blown regime orchestrated election violence. Many of the key players in the different intelligence outfits are praying for the escalation of the election violence and their reports predict violence thus the more the threat, the more the prospects of cash flow.  The 50 billion shillings recently approved by Parliament for anticipated election violence is one such trophies being competed for by members of the intelligence community.

 Different outfits gather, compile, analyse and submit reports at different levels throughout the country which in turn are summerized and submitted to Museveni by the respective outfits.  Such reports cover not only the opposition, but also civil society organisations, religious leaders, NGOs, regime cadres (the likes of Tamale Mirundi, Gen. Otafiire, Tanga Odoi, Prof. Bukenya and others), external forces - individuals like Donald Triumph, Kofi An an and others, international organisations like Human Rights Watch, states more especially the donor community.  It is the recommendations contained in such intelligence reports that fed to cabinet Ministers and government àgencies like the Electoral Commission, Police, Communications Commission, National NGO Board etc to form the basis for their policies and regulations that favor the regime while suppressing any form of political dissent.  It is the analysis and recommendations in such intelligence reports that Prime Minister Rugunda was instructed to deliver to Ugandans last week.  This wad because days before he has attacked violence by the regime militias - the Crime Preventers.

 During the festive season, most of the top religious leaders expressed worries over election violence yet Museveni assures the country that all is fine. The religious leaders highlighted the lack of levelled ground in the entire electoral process.  They decried the level of intimidation and threats of violence that have characterised the ongoing electoral process.  They cautioned the electorates against electing liars and urged them  to elect  candidates who will steer the country to development.  They urged Ugandans to stand firm amidst land grabbing, arson, killings, etc and to vote for leaders who will make laws that will fight evil.  They asked presidential candidates to deploy polling agents at all polling stations in the country  to prevent vote rigging.  Obviously, all the above criticism was aimed at the incumbent Museveni. Earlier on, candidate Besigye had been hosted by the christians at St. Kangwa catholic church in Bushenyi where they fundraised for his political campaigns after the Parish Priest had blessed him. Dr. Besigye had spent Christian  in Moyo where he attended mass and the new years eve in Masindi where he attended mass.
The head of the Catholic Church, Bishop Osama JB told residents of Appa in Amuru district that he woul stand by them on the issue of their land after residents accused Museveni of being behind their suffering over their land.

Museveni has always  threatened and blackmailed religious leaders to stay out of of politics accusing them of being devisive.  He has often bribed them with fundraising contributions and posh cars in exchange for their turning a blind eye and deaf ears on the regime's excesses.  He has tended to lean towards the Born Again Churches in order to undermine the mainstream churches.  He even recognises the traditional healers and witch doctors under Mama Fina.  During the new years eve, Museveni toured the Born Again congregations where he was granted a platform to conduct his campaigns.  He decreed that those born again churches can go ahead and solemnise marriages in total disregard of the existing law and the role of parliament in making laws.  The festive season intelligence briefs were dominated by the "hostility" from religious leaders. The mainstream religious groups were accused of allying with the opposition.  They recommend that the Electoral Commission should slam a ban on contestants  from visiting  places of worship thus the recent ban on the same.

The same religious groups under their umbrella organisation, Joint Religious Council of Uganda (JRCU) are organising a live televised presidential debate for aspirants scheduled for January 15th 2016..  As a way of buying time, Museveni had earlier accepted that he would attend but now it has been confirmed that he would not attend.  Being a "consummate" liar, he is shy and fears to look straight into the camera and the Ugandan audience and be able to state substantiated facts, yet he prefers to operate clandestinely and behind the scenes. Above all he fears to be humiliated by Dr. Besigye because Mr. Mbabazi may not aggressively confront him.  On his part Museveni can not dare to repeat in the presence of Besigye and Mbabazi among others what he has been deceiving Ugandans that they failed to perform when they were in government or else he risks being stripped naked'. Museveni does not recognise the presidential bid of other contestants and that is why he calls them wolves, threatens to arrest them, unleashes terror on their camaign efforts, and vows never to leave power because he has his personal army, the Treasry and the oil reserves.  How could Ugandans expect Museveni to attend the debate when he has in the past shunned similar debates.  How did Democrats expect to debate with à fulltime military dictator!!!

 Therefore, to Museveni religious leaders had laid a trap  for him and he feels betrayed by their lack of patriotism.  On top of paying dearly for poking their finger in the a... Of a leopard, Museveni must be planning to deploy his army officers to head religious institutions.





INFORMATION IS POWER

Friday, 1 January 2016

WHO WILL FACILITATE THE KAGAME/NKURUNZIZA TALKS??

Burundian are currently in Uganda for the relaunching of the East Africa Community (EAC) initiated dialogue on the Burundi political crisis that was launched in May 2015.  Following the failed coup attempt in May 2015, the EAC had assigned Uganda's military dictator Museveni as to chair the the consultations between government and the opposition groups.  Since then, Uganda's Minister of Defence has been charing seasonal consultations between the worrying parties thus prompting the situation to escalate to alarming proportions that has led to the relaunching of the current talks in Kampala. In attendance is the government delegation that is led by the Minister of Foreign Affairs and the main opposition groups led by among others FNL party president Agathon Rwasa who is also the Deputy Speaker of parliament. Among the observers from Burundi were religious leaders, civil society leaders, women organisations and former heads of state. Among the international observers were members of the diplomatic community accredited to Uganda. The current Chairman of the EAC, former President of Tanzania Jakaya Kikwete was represented by Tanzania's Minister of Foreign Affairs.

The ethnic composition of Burundi is similar to that of their cousins in Rwanda where  in both countries, the Tutsi are the minority.  From the time of independence in the early 1960s, the minority Tutsi dominated political and economic power in Burundi while in Rwanda the majority Hut us dominated political power.  During the post independence era, the oppressed Hutus of Burundi struggled against the oppressive minority Tutsi rule while in Rwanda the minority Tutsi in exile were struggling to regain power from the Hutu.  In those struggles the exiled Rwandese Tutsi sought the help of their Tutsi brothers who were in power in Burundi.  Similarly, the struggling Hutu of Burundi sought assistance from their Hutu brothers who were in power in Rwanda.  The exiled Tutsi of Rwanda took over power in Rwanda in 1994 sending the Hutu into exile and subjects of second class citizenship treatment. In Burundi the first Hutu President was slaughtered by the Tutsi dominated army three months later in 1993 plunging the country into an ethnic civil strife that lasted 10 years.

 During the civil war period, the struggling Hutu of Burundi got closer to the equally struggling Hutu of Rwanda who had most recently been ejected from power in Rwanda.  After ten years, in 2005 the civil war in Burundi ended through a negotiated settlement that came to be called the Arusha Peace Accord.  The accord ensured a power sharing deal between Tutsi and Hutu in the security services, political and public service.  Burundi's current President Peter Nkurunziza was elected by the country's parliament as President for five years.  In 2010, at the end of his five years Peter Nkurunziza was reelected this time round through adult suffrage as President for another five years that ended in July 2015.  One of the major achievements of the negotiated settlement was to put an end to the Tutsi domination and the building of a genuine social cohesion amongst Burundians.  While in Burundi ethnic differences are realistically recognised and genuinely handled, in Rwanda the system pretends that there are no ethnic differences  and its a taboo to even talk about them.  That way, while in Burundi ethnic differences are no longer an issue, in Rwanda its a time bomb that can explode at the slightest moment.


In early 2015, as Peter Nkurunziza's term was about to end, he declared his intentions to seek another five years term.  The main opposition parties, civil society groups and some elites protested the move culminating into the April - May street protests.  Nkurunziza argued that his first five years did not count since he had simply been elected by parliament and that its only the second term where he was elected by adult suffrage that counted thus he had served only one constitutional term.  The constitutional court concurred with Nkurunziza thus declaring him eligible for reelection.  As the street protests escalated in the capital Bujumbura, scores of wanainchi from the northern districts of Kayanza and Kabarole bordering with Rwanda started fleeing to Rwanda for refuge.  The popular street protests in Bujumbura were undermined by the foiled coup attempt in May 2015 .  As the government carried out rounding up of suspected coup plotters, both the civilian and some security personnel fled the country.  Rwanda's Paulo Kagame urged Nkurunziza to abandon the so called third term bid thus sparking off bad blood between the two sister countries.  Rwanda's propaganda machinery attempted without success to patray an image of an ethnic conflict in Burundi.  Also, its argument that its own Hutu rebel FDRL had been sheltered in Bujumbura and sidng with the Hutu dominated government, did not take root.

 That is how the EAC  heads of state assigned Uganda's military dictator, Museveni to facilitate a dialogue between the the warring parties in Burundi.  Museveni travelled to Burundi via Rwanda from where he was joined by Uganda's Ambassador to Rwanda.  In Burundi, Museveni urged the stakeholders to form a government of national unity. His main mission was to convince the opposition to take part in the elections so as to give legitimacy to the  polls.  In order to divert Burundians from the real issue at the time, he urged them to unite and talk less about political power and term limits but to instead concentrate on economic development.  He assigned his Minister of Defence to continue with facilitating the dialogue but because of his own worst situation, the task moved at a snail speed.  There is no doubt, since Museveni was in a worst situation after removing term limits and now  seeking a seventh term, he feared making any miningful decision that would have set a precedent that would later be against his own schemes back home thus has been siding with the Nkurunziza regime over third term. 

In the June 2015, amidst tension in the capital Bujumbura,  parliamentary elections were held and though boycotted by the main opposition parties, Nkurunziza ruling party CNDD-FDD overwhelmingly won them with 77 out of the 100 elected seats.  As the country was preparing for the July presidential election, security forces repulsed an attack by an armed group in the northern region areas of Kabarole and Kayanza bordering with Rwanda.  This development further strained relations between the two sister countries. During the April-May foiled coup attempt, a number of leading opposition figures, renegade security officers, civil society and dissident CNDD-FDD dissident fled to Rwanda and were givern VIP sanctuary in Kigali.  In the meantime, the government of Burundi went ahead with the Presidential elections in July 2015 amidst tension in the capital, Bujumbura.  The voter turn out was 98% in the rest of the country save for the tension infested capital of Bujumbura.  Despite the last minute withdrawal from race, seven other Presidential candidates still appeared on the ballot paper.  At the close of the polls, CNDD-FDD candidate Peter Nkurunziza won with 69.4% of the votes cast.  The leader of the most significant and Hutu opposition party - FNL, Agathon Rwasa came next with 18.99% and 21 parliamentary seats.

FNL's Agathon Rwasa took up his position in parliament where he was later elected the Deputy Speaker by 108 out of 112 members of parliament. He had earlier withdrawn from the electoral process after describing it as a joke.  His change of heart by taking up his seat in parliament and more so, being elected to the position of Deputy Speaker of Parliament infuriated the other opposition groups who saw it as a betrayal. On his part, he defended his decision saying that he had opted to join government so as to "play game" within in search for reforms.  As leader of the largest opposition Hutu political party, his decision played a big role in diffusing the post election tension.  President Nkurunziza went ahead to form government with priority focused on strengthening the post foiled coup attempt.  The government took measures to reorganise the security forces targeting ex
-FAB  (former Tutsi dominated army) who were replaced by CNDD-FDD loyalist officers in the Special VIP Protection Brigade that helped to foil the May attempted coup.  The 11th Armoured Battalion and 21st Parachute Battalions were relocated at short notice  with their Commanders  reassigned to other units.  Some other Units were totally phased out and their ex-FAB personnel dispersed to other units.  The reorganisation of the security forces continued with the retirement of others as the discontented opted to flee the country.  Among those who fled are the former army who recently declared an armed rebellion that they claim to lead.

Shortly after the elected government set off for business, a spate of assasinations targeting both Hutu and Tutsi civilians and grenade attacks on Police and Army installations.  Though the attacks had an insurgency character, the government repeatedly blamed the attacks on armed criminals.   An organisation dubbed National Council for the Restoration of the Arusha Accords and Democracy  (CNARED) composed of civilian political leaders convened in the Ethiopian capital Ad is Ababa and resolved to force Nkurunziza out of power by all means including by military means.  Reports of Burundi insurgents being trained in their refugee camps inside Rwanda and being infiltrated back into Burundi via Congo came to the surface.  Burundi protested and Rwanda vehemently denied.  The name of the insurgents and its leadership remained unclear and a subject of speculation. Some circles suggested that it was FNL while others called it Imbogora Burundi ((bring back Burundi).  Its only  the early December 2015. Clashes in the capital Bujumbura that left over 80 alleged militants killed, that the world took the Burundi problem seriously.

The African Union resolved to send a 5000 peace keeping contingent with funding from its new found custodian, China.  Driven by guilty conscieousness, Rwanda said it would not contribute troops but would offer other forms of assistance.  Uganda's Museveni is also not supportive of the deployment if peace keepers for fear that it would set a precedent for his own similar looming situation that may arise out of the February 2016 polls. The government of Burundi has rejected the deployment of peace keepers citing sovereignty.  Museveni jumped into reactivating the stalled dialogue for which he is the facilitator.  The dilemma was on identifying the waring parties in the ongoing killings for which mediation efforts and peacekeepers could stand in between.  In this regard, the 'backers' of the mysterious insurgent group hastly came up with Republican Forces for Burundi (FOREBU) led by among others, Ltcol. Eduardo Nshimirimaana - the pre-May 2015 foiled attempted coup head of the military communication.  The group claims to be fighting fortthe protection of the people and upholding the 2006 Arusha Peace Accords. The Burundi goverment delagation at the Kampala talks rejected the involvement of those who were involed in the May 2015 foiled coup attempt but Museveni warned them against setting conditionalities.

Whatever the case, the Kampala Burundi dialogue will not bring about anything positive because the failure to distinguish between the Nkurunziza third term controversy and the Rwanda/Burundi conflict on one hand and the poor choice of the facilitator who has vested interest.  No wonder, he has pushed the talks to the EAC secretariat in Arusha, Tanzania.  The current crisis in Burundi will not take an ethnic posture as some circles would wish because the level of social cohesion brought about by the end of the genuine resolution of the civil war a decade ago.  However, Kagame's imperialistic ambitions of establishing a client regime in Burundi may continue to wreck havoc if afforded the attention it deserves. Instead of focusing on the Nkurunziza 3rd term as the cause of the ongoing killings, the role of Rwanda in training, arming and sending insurgents to Burundi should be the center of focus or else a worst tragedy is in the offing.  It happened in eastern DRC when Rwanda's efforts to destablise Congo by aiding the M23 rebels was forcefully halted.  With pressure on Rwanda, the armed insurgents will be an internal matter for Burundians and will be resolved the same way the civil war was resolved a decade ago. Moreover, Nkurunziza enjoys overwhelming supprt among ordinary Burundians and because of their history, he enjoys a messaic status. Under the same pressure Rwanda will abandon the Burundi rebel group leaving it to disperse thus ending the externally orchestrated violence inside Burundi. It happened with the opportunistic support for Uganda's PRA rebel group when UK's Foreign Secretary, Claire Short mediated between Kagame and Museveni. If Nkurunziza's 3rd term bid can lead to armed rebellion, what about Museveni's 8th term he amended the constitution in 2005.


 INFORMATION IS POWER